“the freedoms to assemble and associate also apply in cyberspace; in our time, people are as likely to come together to pursue common interests online as in a church or union hall. Together, the freedoms of expression, assembly and association online comprise what I have called the freedom to connect. The United States supports this freedom for people everywhere, and we have called on other nations to do the same.” Hillary Clinton
It’s 2012 time to take a look back at our top ten 2011 predictions to see how well we did in our attempt to predict last year’s technology trends. Were we “On the Money”, “Close But No Cigar” or “Flat Out Wrong”? let’s take a look…
Prediction 1. “Apple will sell $99 iPads in the lead up to iPad2” Result: Flat Out Wrong
Perhaps the result of some wishful thinking on our part, the iPad2 emerged in March of 2011 and since has gone on to glory. Unfortunately there was no 1st generation iPad price drop but we really, really, really wanted one.
Prediction 2. “RIP “Desktop Computer” If you are not a hardcore gamer or a content creator you won’t need one.” Result: Close But No Cigar
Tech pundits have been trying to put the Desktop six feet under for many years but it just won’t die, seems Kyle Reese was right “it can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear and it absolutely will not stop, ever…” Desktops may not be mobile, multi-touch or sexy but clearly they are here to stay. Bravo Desktop bravo!!!
Prediction 3. “The death of Blu-Ray. Digital download and “the cloud” will eliminate the need to fill the living room with Blu-Ray disks.” Result: Close But No Cigar
The broad adoption of home network appliances like the Apple TV and Rokou box has not impacted BluRay sales as intensely as we expected. According to Home Media MagazineBluRay sales increased 35% in 2011 an impressive result considering the now numerous ways of obtaining HD content online; According to HMM “Sales of Blu-ray Disc movies in the last four months of the year have skyrocketed, eclipsing what had been a sluggish year for the high-definition packaged media format, an analyst said…disc sales in the United States will reach about 115 million units in 2011, compared with 85 million units in 2010.” (HMM) It should be noted that; “Futuresource projects that by 2015, 30% of video consumption will occur online, followed by Blu-ray Disc (29%), transactional VOD (21%) and DVD (20%).”(Futuresource)
Prediction 5. “Arise from the ashes magazine and newspapers! Tablet devices like the iPad will revive newspapers and magazines. Companies that create mobile apps to present their content and advertising will succeed but only if they broadly adopt open ID using Facebook or Twitter” Result: On the Money
There are about seven apps to read newspapers and magazines on the iPad, our editors choice comes down to a tie between Flipboard and Editions both are outstanding apps and each is truly a pleasure to use. Flipboard and Editions stand as examples of app developers that understand the importance of user experience. They take full advantage of the iPads multi-touch interface and both are so esthetically beautiful that one would want to leave the iPad on your coffee table for others to see and enjoy. If you haven’t experienced content on either of these apps EBG strongly encourages you to do so. Newspapers and magazines have been given new life thanks to the iPad and other tablet devices.
Prediction 6. “Tissue engineering will come into broader mainstream awareness as the GenX population ages.” Result: Flat out Wrong
Despite tremendous advances in recent years Tissue engineeringtreatments are still relegated to animal and limited human trials, the technology remains far from being mainstream.
Prediction 7. “Firefox and Opera will die out while Chrome and new entrants like Rockmelt will dominate the browser market.” Result: Close But No Cigar
It would not be fair to say that Firefox and Opera are dead however according to Statcounter.com Google’s Chrome Browser came out on top last year taking 23.6% of the global market. Back in November Chrome super passed Firefox for the first time. Hopefully Chrome will continue to improve in both performance and popularity.
Prediction 8. “RIP Yahoo.com, Digg.com. Other social media sites have make most of their offerings moot. These companies will be sold off for parts.” Result: Close But No Cigar
Yahoo once dominated all things search but with the ascension of Google and social media superpower Facebook, Yahoo seems to have lost its way and the interest of consumers for that matter. When a company starts recruiting activities in preparation of possible departures of board members you know that either great change or great calamity is in store for Yahoo. Digg .com on the other hand is still around but has many months of regaining the confidence of its user base and apologizing for past transgressions if it ever hopes to regain its former glory. Digg remains an amazing site and we continue to hope it can find its soul again.
Prediction 9. “Good bye “The Button” and “The Switch”. Touch screens, Multi Touch, Gesture and Thought Based interfaces will be incorporated into everything.” Result: Flat out Wrong
Seems buttons are here to stay, not only are there currently no MultiTouch shirts on the market we still can’t turn the of the lights with our mind!!!! Seriously we were way off on this one, there are however several Gesture control technologies out there that we find intriguing.
Prediction 10. “A major mobile virus will strike cell phones and tablets worldwide highlighting the need for greater security and protection on mobile devices.” Result: On the Money
There have been several events that have given those in the security sector pause. Most notably events in the Android Market place. Back in March of 2011 ITP reported that; ” Over 50 applications available on the Android Marketplace have been discovered to contain a virus, according to the BBC. The malicious apps, copies of existing applications repackaged to contain virus code, may have been downloaded up to 200,000 times by unsuspecting users.” (ITP) As more and more global internet users rely on mobile devices for their day to day needs mobile security will become increasingly important.
The year was 1963 the presenter was Ivan Southerland of MIT’s Lincoln Labs demonstrating the first Graphical Communication System paving the way for the GUI. By 1968 Doug Engelbart brought us the first of what we would call modern input device combinations utilizing both a mouse and keyboard. This simple and elegant design idea remains with us today. By 1982 the Xerox Star 8010 came along with its unique Graphical User Interface an innovation which set the standard for desktop computers for decades to come. By 1993 the internet emerged and changed everything. We have come a long way in the last 40 plus years we can only wonder how far we will go.
We have seen this before, it’s a concept video designed to show off what one company envisions for the future. Some companies are able to turn their visions into reality while others struggle to achieve their vision. Others seem to lose their way entirely, in time forgetting the great vision they once had. Microsoft had all the ingredients they needed to dominate the tablet market segment, the smart phone segment and internet search yet missed the mark allowing other companies to surge ahead of them. So it is no surprise that we here at Ebongeek are quite skeptical about the likelyhood that Microsoft can deliver on this beautiful vision they have created. To its credit these videos are well produced, awe inspiring and futuristic. Its a world where technology is everywhere, seemingly embedded and integrated into everything from the tables to the walls, the tools and applications depicted appear not only useful but truly beautiful. Oddly that’s the problem, Microsoft’s future vision is not truly as radical and revolutionary as one would expect or hope for. This future is just like now but better, with wider, thinner, brighter and faster versions of devices and applications that exist today. If one is to strive for a vision of the future it must be more than a better version of the present it must be truly transformative and revolutionary. So come on Microsoft surprise us, astound us, show us something we have never seen before. Are you up to the challenge?